Circulating tumor DNA as a biomarker for predicting progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objectives Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is emerging as a potential prognostic biomarker in multiple tumor types. However, despite the many studies available on small series of patients with ovarian cancer, a recent systematic review and meta-analysis is lacking. The objective of this study was to determine the association of ctDNA with progression-free-survival and overall survival in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. Methods An electronic search was conducted using PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, CENTRAL (Cochrane Library), and CINAHL-Complete from January 2000 to September 15, 2023. To be included in the analysis the studies had to meet the following pre-specified inclusion criteria: (1) evaluable ctDNA; (2) progression-free-survival and overall survival reported as hazard ratio (HR); and (3) the patient population had epithelial ovarian cancer at the time of ctDNA detection. We evaluated the association of ctDNA with progression-free survival and overall survival. Secondary outcomes focused on sub-group analysis of genomic alterations and international Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage. Results A total of 26 studies reporting on 1696 patients with epithelial ovarian cancer were included. The overall concordance rate between plasma-based and tissue-based analyses was approximately 62%. We found that a high level of ctDNA in epithelial ovarian cancer was associated with worse progression-free survival (HR 5.31, 95% CI 2.14 to 13.17, p<0.001) and overall survival (HR 2.98, 95% CI 1.86 to 4.76, p<0.0001). The sub-group analysis showed a greater than threefold increase in the risk of relapse in patients with positive HOXA9 meth-ctDNA (HR 3.84, 95% CI 1.57 to 9.41, p=0.003). Conclusions ctDNA was significantly associated with worse progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. Further prospective studies are needed. PROSPERO registration number CRD42023469390.